AGP Executive Report

Banking Outlook: UBS flagged Greece as a standout European banking market, citing 8%-10% corporate lending growth, EU Recovery funding and valuations that could support ~15% annual total returns, with retail mortgages still soft. Share Buybacks: Alpha Bank repurchased 1.75m shares for about €8.1m and Eurobank followed with 1.18m shares for €5.44m, both executed on Euronext Athens as part of ongoing programs. Tax-and-Income Push: Greece unveiled a €2.2bn package for 2027 with 17 measures covering taxes, wages, pensions, benefits and housing, including changes for self-employed income rules, a minimum wage rise to €1,000 and a new “My Home III” scheme. Tourism Spend: Bank of Greece data shows U.S. visitors outspending others in 1H 2026, averaging ~€1,213 per trip versus ~€702 for Britons, while total tourism receipts rose 14.8% to ~€8.8bn. Border Rules: EU Entry/Exit System checks resume in full this week, with renewed warnings of queues and delays as flexibility ends, including reports that some manual checks may persist. Geopolitics & Shipping: Strait of Hormuz traffic hit the lowest since May amid U.S.-Iran tit-for-tat strikes, raising freight and insurance risks for energy shipments.

Tourism Momentum: Crete is sustaining a strong season into late October, with hotels reporting high occupancy and 1.67m scheduled international seats for September–October; demand is shifting toward last-minute bookings and package discounts are up to 40% versus peak. Digital Justice Push: Greece’s justice system is set to get faster and more citizen-focused via an electronic court file, digital submissions and AI tools, cutting Athens Court of First Instance delays and speeding criminal record certificates. Shipping & Newbuilds: Sea Pioneer Shipping has been identified as the Greek buyer behind SK Oceanplant’s aframax tanker order (six firm plus two options), with deliveries starting in 2029–2030. Capital Markets: The Athens Stock Exchange returns to developed market status after more than a decade, a move expected to broaden the investor base and boost inflows into major Greek stocks. Defense Diplomacy: Prime Minister Mitsotakis says Greece wants to expand defense cooperation with Arab countries across the Middle East, building on the Greece–Israel defense agreement.

Economic Policy & Cost of Living: Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis used the Thessaloniki International Fair to unveil a €2.2bn 2027 package mixing tax cuts, income support and social measures, including abolition of income tax for professional farmers up to €20,000, a minimum-wage push, lower private-sector contributions and higher pension allowances. Housing & Investment Rules: Greece is raising the property-transfer tax on non-EU buyers to 15% from 3%, signaling a tougher stance on foreign real-estate demand and its impact on affordability. Monetary Policy: The ECB is expected to lift its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.5% as energy-price pressure from the Middle East keeps inflation risks alive, squeezing borrowers via higher Euribor. EU Travel & Border Management: Entry/Exit System (EES) flexibility ends Sunday, with renewed expectations of longer queues at EU borders unless some countries’ technical issues delay full biometric checks. Energy & Regional Links (Cyprus): Cyprus’ energy interconnection plans face growing political uncertainty, with calls for official briefings over the Greece-linked power project. Business & Finance Outlook: Moody’s says Greece is borrowing relatively cheaply thanks to post-crisis reforms and improved credibility, even as global bond yields rise. Hospitality Trade: XENIA 2026 returns to Metropolitan Expo (Nov 21-23) with 500+ exhibitors focused on hotels, tourism and digital upgrades. Scam Watch: A Paphos pensioner reports being hit twice in a crypto investment scam, first via a social-media ad and later through “recovery agents.”

Tax Relief Push: Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis pledged over €2bn in tax cuts and wage support ahead of next year’s election, including €400 bonuses for pensioners, €500 for public servants, zero tax for low-income farmers and families with three children, plus a minimum wage hike to €950 (and €1,000 in 2028). Cost-of-Living Protests: The plan was announced as more than 25,000 people protested in Thessaloniki over high living costs and weak purchasing power. Ratings Watch: DBRS lifted Greece’s debt outlook to positive, citing expected debt reduction to 134.4% of GDP by end-2027, supported by growth and primary surpluses, while flagging risks from high debt and low labor productivity. Trade & Investment: The 90th Thessaloniki International Fair opened with Japan as honoured country, spotlighting tech, energy, healthcare and manufacturing. Aviation Safety: Greece declared three days of mourning after two Hellenic Air Force pilots died in an F-4E Phantom crash at the Athens Flying Week show near Tanagra. Maritime Incident: A Malta-flagged yacht captain was arrested after a collision near the Corinth Canal left one fisherman unconscious; investigators are examining navigation lights and watch procedures.

Tourism & Taxes: Greece’s hotel industry is pushing Mitsotakis for lower accommodation VAT (to 6.5%), clearer climate-fee rules, and tougher short-term rental limits—aimed at easing pressure on beds and housing in hotspots. Energy Infrastructure: North Macedonia and Serbia have joined the Vertical Gas Corridor, with access to Greece’s gas system and LNG routes via Revithoussa and Alexandroupolis, tied to a new Greece–North Macedonia interconnector. Public Finance Outlook: Morningstar DBRS says Greece is among the eurozone countries least exposed to “higher for longer” rates, helped by stronger growth and continued primary budget surpluses. Migration Policy: Five EU states, including Greece, are moving toward “return hubs” outside the bloc, with talks reportedly advanced toward 2027 operations and partner countries such as Rwanda or Uganda. Defense & Geopolitics: Europe’s security map is shifting as Israel–Greece’s “Achilles Shield” air-defense deal overlaps with the broader regional push for new security networks, including the “Mecca Alliance” institutionalization. Business Capital Markets: Star Bulk is preparing an Euronext Athens parallel listing and a potential equity raise of up to €112.2m. EU/World Watch: The UN backed a resolution to redraw world maps using equal-area projections, after Mercator-style distortions made Africa appear far smaller than it is.

Greece–Israel Defence Deal: Star Bulk Carriers moves to a parallel listing on Euronext Athens and launches an equity offering of up to €112.2m, underscoring continued capital-market activity around Greek shipping. Agriculture Support: Greece expands a €4.14m aid scheme for alfalfa growers, with applications via myBusinessSupport from Sept. 10–18 and payments expected by Sept. 30. Energy & Infrastructure: North Macedonia and Serbia join the Vertical Gas Corridor in Thessaloniki, extending regional gas interconnectivity with Bulgartransgaz coordinating transmission-system cooperation. Air Travel & Costs: Ryanair cuts two million seats for winter 2026–27 and warns fares could rise if fuel stays expensive, while Greece’s airports face upcoming EES queue pressures. Policy & Migration: Denmark, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and Greece agree steps toward “return hubs” outside the EU by late 2027, as European governments push harder on returns. Business & Economy: Mitsotakis is set to unveil a €2bn plan on tax cuts and pay rises ahead of Thessaloniki International Fair, while Greece’s rental squeeze and supermarket price-reduction push remain in focus.

Greek PM Support Package: Kyriakos Mitsotakis will unveil a €2bn+ bundle of tax breaks, pension and minimum-wage rises and other relief measures worth about 1% of GDP, aimed at easing the cost-of-living squeeze ahead of next year’s election. Housing & Living Costs: Greece’s rental squeeze remains in focus as prices rise sharply, while the government pushes supermarket price cuts on hundreds of products to bring down household bills. Defense & Industry: Greece’s €3.5bn–€3.6bn “Achilles Shield” air-defense deal with Israel is back in the spotlight, underlining how defense spending is reshaping regional industrial ties. Energy Policy: Greece’s role in regional connectivity continues, with EU-linked infrastructure themes at the Thessaloniki International Fair and cross-border energy planning in the wider Balkans. Business Finance: Eurobank updates its 2026 calendar and Greek banking sentiment stays supported, while broader market conditions remain driven by global bond-market jitters. Crypto Regulation: Binance is reported to be using MiCA workarounds to keep serving some EU customers after missing the licensing deadline, keeping regulators on alert. Tourism & Travel: Greek tourism demand and travel trends continue to be boosted by major events and airline network moves across Europe.

Greece–Turkey Defence Tensions: Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis told EU Council President António Costa that Greece will not accept “instructions” from Ankara on defence, citing an “active threat of war” and ongoing challenges to Greek sovereignty in the Aegean. Israel–Greece Security Deal: Greece’s defence push continues with major reporting around the $3.5bn “Achilles Shield” air-defence agreement linking Israel and Greece in a multi-layered system. Domestic Politics & Cost Debate: Alexis Tsipras’ economic programme in Thessaloniki sparked a sharp political clash, with the fight shifting from promises to the price tag—VAT cuts, wage targets, and education/health spending all under scrutiny. PASOK Leadership Push: PASOK chief Nikos Androulakis rallied in Heraklion, arguing Greece can’t afford another term under New Democracy and pitching PASOK as a programme-led alternative. Labour Market Signal: Greece’s unemployment rate edged down to 7.9% in July 2026, adding to the week’s macroeconomic read-through. Retail & Household Relief: Greece’s price-reduction initiative rolled out with cuts across more than 1,660 supermarket products, aiming to ease pressure on household budgets.

Digital Government Push: Greece showcased the next phase of gov.gr at the 90th Thessaloniki International Fair, highlighting a unified digital service infrastructure (CRM), AI via the Daedalus/PHAROS platform, upgrades to the Hellenic Cadastre, MyHealth, and justice-sector digitisation. EU Energy & Investment: Greece is set to be a key hub at the 10th Southeast Europe Energy Forum in Thessaloniki, while the EU approved major funding for Greek islands’ energy projects and decarbonisation. Banking & Markets: Eurobank’s stock option plan adds 6.55m new shares to Euronext Athens, boosting capital after management and staff exercised options. Tourism & Transport: Ryanair renewed complaints over Greece’s air traffic control failures and summer delays, while Athens announced new local bus routes. Local Economy & Infrastructure: Limni’s waterfront renewal is set to start after September 15, with LED lighting, accessible paths, parking zones and new landscaping. Shipping & Security: Two Filipino sailors were killed after an attack on a Saudi oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring ongoing maritime risk. Property & Demand: Greece’s luxury property market is described as moving into “organic maturity,” supported by limited quality supply and more equity-based buying.

Defense & Geopolitics: Greece is set to deepen its air-defence architecture with Israel’s “Achilles Shield” deal, reportedly €3.035bn, aiming to integrate Greece’s airspace command-and-control within 35 months—an upgrade that also reshapes regional deterrence as Turkey and other players adjust their own security alignments. Household Costs: Greece’s National Price Reduction Initiative is projected to cut average household spending by up to €39 a month, covering 1,740 product codes; the market-control authority says it used broader sales data and rejected “artificial basket” comparisons. Road Safety: Greece reports a sharp drop in drivers exceeding the alcohol limit to 0.7% in the first eight months of 2026, after nearly doubling roadside checks to 1.7m tests. Cyber & SMEs: Athens Micro shared practical IT and cybersecurity steps for small businesses, stressing proactive protection like multifactor authentication and phishing defenses. Energy/Shipping: Dynagas LNG Partners will release its Q2 and six-month 2026 results on Sept. 8, keeping investor focus on LNG carrier earnings. EU Transport Funding: Bulgaria, Romania and Greece plan joint cross-border projects under the 2026 Connecting Europe Facility, targeting rail and motorway upgrades along the Baltic Sea–Black Sea–Aegean corridor.

Greece-Israel Defence: Greece and Israel signed a $3.5bn “Achilles Shield” air-defence deal, combining David’s Sling, Spyder and Barak systems plus radars, with a follow-on anti-drone package—one of Israel’s biggest export moves and a major signal of Athens’ strategic pivot despite political backlash. EU Energy & Islands: The EU approved a €2.3bn programme for Greece’s islands under the Islands Decarbonisation Fund, funding grid interconnections (€1.1bn) and renewables with storage (€977m) to cut oil reliance and lower costs. Health Financing Pressure: Greek drugmakers warn Prime Minister Mitsotakis that the medicine financing model has hit its limits, citing heavy clawbacks and emergency import spending that threaten patient access and the health system’s stability. Retail Strain: Greece’s summer sales disappointed retailers, with only 1 in 10 reporting higher turnover; the Hellenic Confederation of Commerce and Entrepreneurship is pushing for government relief at the Thessaloniki Fair. Labour Productivity Gap: Greece’s workers log among the longest hours in the EU, but output per hour is far lower, highlighting underinvestment and structural limits in how value is extracted from labour. Digital Security Link (Cyprus-Greece): Cyprus and Greece launched their first quantum-secure satellite data connection to protect communications against future “store now, decrypt later” threats.

Geopolitical Risk: US forces struck Iran again near the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump warning of a “much harder” response if Tehran retaliates, as explosions were reported in Iran’s south and officials cited attacks on shipping and US troops. Defense & Industry: Salamis Shipyards delivered four more outfitted blocks for France’s third FDI frigate, underscoring Greece’s growing role in European naval supply chains. Shipping Markets: EuroHoldings extended time charters for its feeder containerships M/V Joanna and M/V Aegean Express, locking in higher daily rates and supporting liquidity amid a tight charter market. Greece Economy: S&P Global’s Greece Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4 in August, pointing to stronger order growth and hiring, though supply disruptions and higher input costs still weigh. Consumer & Retail: Greece’s price-reduction push kicked off with discounts on more than 1,660 products, aiming to ease household pressure. Tourism & Travel: Celestyal expanded its winter Mediterranean program with new Eastern Med routes from Athens, Istanbul and more, including an overnight in Alexandria. Payments & Finance (Global): India’s UPI hit a record 24.51bn transactions in August, driven by festive demand—another sign of accelerating digital payments momentum.

Defence Deal: Greece signed a €3.035bn “Achilles Shield” agreement with Israel for a multi-layer air-defence and counter-drone network, with 19 Greek companies already involved and a planned export-capable production base in Greece. Monetary Politics: Economist Barry Eichengreen warns the biggest threat to dollar dominance is US politics, not the economy, as global currency power remains tied to domestic stability. Digital Payments: India’s UPI is expanding abroad: NPCI International and Uzbekistan’s NIPC (via HUMO and the UZQR QR network) enable Indian travellers to pay merchants across Uzbekistan using existing UPI apps. Retail Relief: IKEA is rolling out major price cuts in Europe, including Cyprus, as cost-of-living pressure hits homeware demand. Shipping & Industry: Corinth Pipeworks won a Rovuma LNG Phase 1 line-pipe supply package for Mozambique, with manufacturing in Greece. Markets & Finance: Alpha Trust Holdings is seeking delisting from Euronext Athens after Alpha Bank’s full takeover. Sports Tech: Sportradar extended its Euroleague Basketball data and AV betting rights deal through 2031. Local Economy: Athens-area businesses back a university union negotiation with visible support posters, as talks continue.

Defense Deal: Greece and Israel have sealed the €3.5bn “Achilles Shield” air-defense agreement, with Athens set to integrate multi-layer systems including David’s Sling, SPYDER and Barak, plus drone protection, into its existing defenses—an industrial and strategic boost as regional security tensions rise. Jobs & Economy: Greece’s unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in July 2026, the lowest for that month in 19 years, though analysts note the drop may reflect shrinking labor participation as well as hiring. Cost of Living: Greece’s nationwide price reduction initiative kicks off with cuts on 1,660 supermarket products, targeting relief for households. Shipping & Markets: Tanker owners are stocking up on VLCCs amid a sustained rate surge, with a sharp jump in 2026 tanker sale-and-purchase activity. Tourism Pressure: Balos in Crete went viral for “hell on earth” crowding, with reports of thousands of visitors daily and gridlock at the main access point. Maritime Incident: A Cyprus ferry disaster left eight dead and 17 missing after a capsizing off northern Cyprus, with crew detained. Aviation/Travel: Libyan Express will launch new flights to Malta, Rome and Milan from 6 September, expanding European connectivity.

Greek-Israeli Defence Deal: Greece is set to sign a roughly €3bn agreement with Israel for a multi-layer air-defence system under the “Achilles’ Shield” programme, with a supplementary €26m for Drone Dome anti-drone capabilities; the build is expected to take about 35 months and will integrate Israeli platforms with Greece’s existing Patriot and other systems. EU Social Climate Funding: The European Commission endorsed Greece’s €4.8bn Social Climate Plan (2026-2032), targeting 460,000 vulnerable households via heat pumps and solar water heating, plus energy-efficient social housing and support for students’ residences. Retail Pressure as Sales End: Greece’s summer sales are ending with weaker retail performance, with many shops reporting lower turnover—blaming limited purchasing power and arguing for more flexible, continuous promotions that don’t just favour large players. Energy/Infrastructure Watch: Cyprus and Turkey-related friction continues around the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI), while Greece’s broader regional energy links remain in focus. Banking Outlook: UBS reiterated a positive stance on Greek banks, flagging further upside for Eurobank and Alpha as capital deployment and shareholder returns improve.

National Cost Relief: Greece’s National Price Reduction Initiative kicks off Aug. 31 with 1,660+ product codes, cutting prices by about 7% on average (with some items down 5%–30%). It covers basic food, household goods, school supplies, private-label products and meat, with 900 branded items already in, 450+ school items averaging ~10% off, ~250 private-label items averaging ~7% off, and ~60 meat products averaging ~7.2% off; reductions run 2–4 months and shoppers can verify deals via the PosoKanei platform. Planning Overhaul: The environment ministry announced three special spatial planning frameworks—industry/supply chain, renewable energy, and tourism—aimed at one unified land-use strategy, replacing decades of fragmentation with clearer rules for investment and stronger safeguards for communities and the environment. Shipping & Investment: Greek shipowner Evangelos Pistiolis is linked to new MR tanker construction slots at South Korea’s K Shipbuilding, extending a tanker investment push with deliveries targeted for 2028. Regional Tragedy: A ferry capsized off northern Cyprus near Kyrenia, killing at least eight and leaving 18 missing; the captain and crew were detained for questioning as search and rescue continues. Tourism Boost from Film: IOBE links Greece’s cash rebate support for international productions to higher arrivals and overnight stays, with screen tourism benefits spilling into hotels, transport and local businesses.